Martin A. Armstrong

According to DeSmog, Armstrong has frequently posted on his website denying the existence of man-made climate change. He claimed in 2018, "Climate is changing and it is part of the normal cycle – not human-induced.", and in June 2016 that "Britain is moving into an Ice Age".

The case against Armstrong was finally closed in 2017, with the distribution of about $80 million to claim holders by the receiver, according to court filings. Armstrong appealed the refusal of the receiver to transport his remaining possessions from storage lockers in New York and Pennsylvania to him in Florida, but the appeal failed in 2019. Concerning his felony conviction, Armstrong is "unrepentant", according to Bloomberg.

According to an editorial in The Guardian, Armstrong incorrectly predicted that a sovereign debt crisis, or "Big Bang" as he called it, would begin on 1 October 2015.

In 2014, a day laborer sold a box of 58 rare coins—which he said he had found while clearing out the basement of a house in New Jersey—to a Philadelphia thrift shop for $6,000. Three years later, in 2017, when the thrift shop announced they were to auction the coins—valued at $2.5 million—Armstrong came forward to declare himself to be the rightful owner. He claimed that he had hidden the coins in his mother's old house to take them "off the books" in anticipation of the public offering of his firm. The thrift shop sued Armstrong, asking the court to declare the thrift shop as rightful owners while Armstrong counter-sued, also seeking ownership. In 2019 the US government found out about the coins and claimed them as part of the treasure hoard Armstrong had refused to hand over in 1999, and for which he had served seven years in jail for contempt. (In addition to rare coins, the treasure hoard—valued at $12.9 million—included 102 gold bars, 699 gold coins, and an ancient bust of Julius Caesar.)

The 2014 documentary film The Forecaster tells the story of Armstrong's financial model, his imprisonment and release. It was directed by Marcus Vetter and Karin Steinberger and co-produced by Arte. The film presents Armstrong's claims that he is innocent, that the bank involved was at fault, that he was coerced into admitting to fraud, and that the FBI was after his economic model. Representatives of the United States Department of Justice were not interviewed in the film.

Barron's noted the model called for a change in sentiment in June 2011.

He was released from federal custody on 2 September 2011 after serving a total of eleven years behind bars.

In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators accused Armstrong of collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly commingling these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading. United States prosecutors called it a three-billion-dollar Ponzi scheme. Allegedly assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Corporation, which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong's investors. In 2001, the bank agreed to pay US$606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal.

Armstrong was indicted in 1999 and ordered by Judge Richard Owen to turn over fifteen million dollars in gold bars and antiquities bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar. Armstrong produced some of the items but claimed the others were not in his possession; this led to several contempt of court charges brought by the SEC and the CFTC, for which he served seven years in jail until he reached a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. Under the terms of the agreement, Armstrong admitted to deceiving corporate investors and improperly commingling client funds—actions that according to prosecutors resulted in commodities losses of more than seven hundred million dollars—and was sentenced to five years in prison.

On June 27, 1998, Armstrong was quoted in the Financial Times, predicting that the Russian financial troubles would prove to be more damaging to Europe than the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Other commentators in the same article argued that only countries with strong ties to Russia - e.g. Germany and smaller eastern European countries - would be severely affected. This turned out to be closer to the truth, with the British FTSE100 and French CAC 40 having fully recovered by December, and the German DAX reaching pre-crisis levels by November the next year.

In 1985 Armstrong was found to have violated Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulations by failing to register as a commodity trading advisor, failing to deliver required disclosure documents to clients, and failing to maintain proper records. In 1987 one of Armstrong's trading entities, Economic Consultants of Princeton Inc., was charged with failing to disclose a commission sharing agreement, and another of his entities, Princeton Economic Consultants Inc, was charged with misrepresenting hypothetical performance results and omitting a required disclaimer in advertisements. The penalties levied banned Armstrong and his companies from trading for twelve months, revoked their registrations, imposed cease-and-desist orders, and levied civil penalties totalling fifty thousand dollars.

Armstrong's theory was initially applied in 1977, when he used it to successfully predict an upturn in the price of commodities, according to The New Yorker.

In 1973, he began publishing commodities market predictions as a hobby. As his coin and stamp business declined, Armstrong spent more time on his commodities ventures, launching a paid newsletter in 1983.

Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.

After viewing The Toast of New York in high school, Armstrong came to believe that assets do not appreciate linearly over time and that, historically, some manner of economic panic occurs every 8.6 years. His economic philosophy was influenced by his father, a lawyer whose grandfather had lost a fortune in the 1929 stock market crash.